election analysed
Male' Shows Huge Swing towards DRPThe ruling Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) gained over 2,000 (up 80%) votes from its showing a year ago compared with a mere 300 (up 4%) vote increase for the opposition MDP. In the by-election for the Special Majlis (constitutional assembly) last Saturday, the margin of victory for the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) was still considerable: 7,100 votes to 4,700.
The MDP was celebrating its success on Sunday while the DRP were reported to have held crisis meetings among grass roots activists and mid-level leadership. Others were said to be preparing for the commemoration of the Maldives' first 'Unity Day' one year to the day from the Indian Ocean tsunami.
One analyst from the DRP told olhuala.com: the margin of victory for the MDP is large and we are rightly concerned about whether we may be losing touch with the Male' electorate."
Male' has an eligible voting population of about 31,000 of which less than 14,000 exercised their right to vote on Saturday, a turnout of 43%
"Closer analysis reveals a totally different picture. First, low voter turnout or voter apathy is generally an indication of satisfaction with the status quo, and of government policies."
"Second, if we look back just eleven months, we see a totally different picture: Ibrahim Ismail (MDP leader, aka Ibra) gained 6,800 votes in the parliamentary elections while DRP's candidate managed just 2,500 votes. MDP's gains are statistically insignificant. DRP's gains though are tremendous. We feel that the tide is turning in this traditionally anti-government urban centre (Male')."
Many believe that the MDP has turned off a lot of people with their militant style. Further, revelations about their underhand dealings and links to shady foreign organisations and their anti-islam stance have given rise to the population's distaste.
"MDP made headway with messages new to Maldivians. But now their novelty value has worn off, their honeymoon period is over. They promised their supporters they would bring the government down in a month, then two then six, and they have never even looked like succeeding. There are growing calls for the MDP to change, to renounce their violent traditions. These have not been forthcoming" said the DRP analyst.
If the current trends continue, Male', the MDP's biggest stronghold, will become a DRP majority constituency as soon as October 2006. Many believe this to be, because of the renewed urgency of the reform process and the benefits the common people have started to gain from it.
"The MDP, if they want a political future in Male', must now be searching for reasons why they could not muster more voters. Everyone in Male' knows that all eligible MDP voters actually voted on Saturday while nowhere near 100% of DRP voters cast their vote. Look for all of them to turn up in a Presidential election", concluded the analyst.
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